In the intricate tapestry of Nigerian politics, few figures embody the archetype of the political godfather more vividly than President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Often hailed by supporters as a “master strategist”—a chess grandmaster who orchestrates outcomes with surgical precision—Tinubu’s influence has evolved from dominating Lagos State politics to shaping national APC structures.
Yet, recent events, particularly the APC senatorial primaries in Delta State and echoes across other states, reveal this model less as enlightened statesmanship and more as a transactional enterprise: power as business, loyalty as currency, and governance as secondary to control.
The Godfather Template: Lagos as Laboratory
Tinubu’s playbook was refined in Lagos. As governor (1999–2007), he built a formidable machine blending financial acumen, grassroots networks (notably transport unions), and strategic anointing of successors.
Fashola, Ambode, and Sanwo-Olu followed in sequence, with deviations (like Ambode’s perceived independence) met with swift correction.
This “Lion of Bourdillon” model prioritizes loyalty, resource control, and party machinery over open competition. Critics argue it has entrenched a patronage system where access to power flows through personal allegiance rather than merit or broad popularity.
Scaled nationally post-2023, this approach manifests in Tinubu’s role as ultimate arbiter in APC affairs. The 2026 senatorial primaries offered a window into its operations: coordination from the top, affirmations for loyalists, and management of defectors and incumbents.
Four sitting governors entered the senatorial fray, signaling a pathway from executive to legislative power under the party umbrella. Many outcomes relied on consensus or affirmation, pointing to deliberate central coordination.
Delta State: A Case Study in Friction and Transaction
Delta State illuminates both the strengths and limits of this strategy. Ahead of 2027, APC primaries produced candidates amid claims of manipulation, broken agreements, and shifting loyalties:
– Delta Central: Incumbent Senator Ede Dafinone was declared winner with over 116,000 votes against former Deputy Senate President Ovie Omo-Agege’s reported 3,643. Omo-Agege countered that he won 84 of 85 wards decisively (around 109,000 votes) based on organic support, alleging the governor’s camp disregarded a Tinubu-directed 60-40 sharing formula between “old” APC members and new entrants (including PDP defectors).
He claimed the process favored administrative control over popular will.
– Delta South: Incumbent Joel-Onowakpo Thomas held on against challengers.
Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, despite PDP roots, has publicly rallied support for Tinubu in 2027, citing familial ties through the First Lady and framing opposition as “evil.” Tinubu reportedly secured massive votes in the state’s APC presidential primary exercise.
Yet the alleged breach of the 60-40 formula in Delta—implemented more smoothly elsewhere—fuels internal rancor, with Omo-Agege signaling potential independent action.
Delta exposes the transactional core: absorb rivals (like Okowa), install preferred proxies, and manage fallout through appeals or incentives. Success depends on local enforcers (governors and structures) aligning with Abuja’s preferences.
Broader Patterns Across States
Similar dynamics played out elsewhere. In Imo West, Governor Hope Uzodimma decisively defeated predecessor Rochas Okorocha. Other ex-governors and power brokers faced mixed fortunes—some reclaimed relevance via Senate tickets, others were sidelined.
Incumbent senators lost ground where godfather alignments or defections shifted the balance. Affirmations for key Senate leadership figures underscored top-down harmony for the “core.”
This is classic godfatherism: godfathers (national or state-level) install governors or senators expecting reciprocity in appointments, contracts, and policy. When godsons assert independence—as seen historically in Lagos or Rivers (Wike-Fubara tensions)—crises erupt. Tinubu’s national elevation amplifies this, turning state primaries into extensions of federal influence.
The Business Angle: Strategy or Short-Termism?
Calling this “master strategist” politics credits tactical acumen—building coalitions, timing defections, leveraging incumbency—but invites scrutiny on outcomes. Nigerian godfatherism often prioritizes elite pacts over ideological vision or sustainable development.
It delivers electoral wins through machinery and money but risks alienation: suppressed popular candidates breed resentment, as Omo-Agege’s claims suggest; over-reliance on loyalty can produce compliant but uninspiring officeholders; and persistent poverty, insecurity, and economic strain test public tolerance for transactional politics.
Tinubu’s supporters point to financial reforms, infrastructure pushes, and stabilizing measures as evidence of deeper strategy. Critics see a strategist adept at power retention but challenged in translating it into broad-based prosperity.
The shift “from godfathers to governors” (and back to Senate) risks entrenching a closed loop where power circulates among a connected class, with voters as periodic validators rather than sovereign deciders.
Looking Ahead
As 2027 approaches, Tinubu’s machine appears geared for continuity: rewarding defectors, managing primaries centrally, and projecting unity. Delta’s disputes, however, warn that local resistance, organic support, and broken pacts can disrupt even the best-laid plans.
True mastery in politics ultimately lies not just in winning the game but in ensuring the game serves the people—moving beyond patronage to institutions that outlast godfathers.
In Nigeria’s democracy, the business of politics remains lucrative for the anointed. Whether Tinubu’s brand elevates the republic or merely refines an old oligarchic model will define his legacy.
The primaries are not the endgame; they are the opening bids in a high-stakes enterprise where the electorate still holds the ultimate, if often constrained, veto.
Pamela O. Political analyst and columnist
