The 10th National Assembly, particularly its APC majority, finds itself in an ironic political bind as preparations for the 2027 general elections intensify.
Many lawmakers who once pushed or supported stricter rules around party primaries and defections are now discovering that those same provisions could leave them politically stranded — especially as they must navigate the dominance of state governors within the APC.
The Law They Helped Shape
Nigeria’s electoral framework (including updates leading into the Electoral Act 2026) introduced tighter timelines and procedural hurdles for party membership registration, nomination, and participation in primaries.
Key elements include mandatory digital membership registers submitted to INEC well in advance of primaries, restrictions that make last-minute party switches after losing a primary far more difficult (or practically ineffective for securing a fresh ticket), and an emphasis on direct primaries or genuine consensus processes.
The original intent, as framed in public discourse, was to curb “party-jumping,” reduce post-primary defections, promote internal party discipline, and prevent the chaos that often leads to court battles or invalidated candidacies.
APC lawmakers, holding the majority in both chambers, played a central role in shaping or allowing these provisions to advance. Many viewed them as tools to stabilize the ruling party and limit opposition maneuvering.
The Boomerang Effect
The irony is now biting hard. APC national lawmakers (senators and House members) who assumed they would receive automatic tickets for re-election — especially those who defected from other parties with promises of smooth sailing — are facing a different reality:
– APC National Chairman Nentawe Yilwatda has repeatedly stated there is “no automatic ticket” in the party’s constitution or the Electoral Act.
All aspirants, including sitting National Assembly members, must test their popularity through direct primaries or a credible consensus arrangement.
– President Bola Tinubu has reportedly backed governors’ central role in state-level candidate selection, rejecting blanket automatic endorsements for senators and Reps. Where consensus fails, primaries become the route.
This leaves many APC federal lawmakers at the mercy of their state governors.
In states where the governor controls party structures, resources, and local delegates, a sitting senator or Rep who has fallen out of favor (or simply hasn’t aligned closely enough) could be sidelined during primaries or consensus talks.
Some defected lawmakers were allegedly lured to APC with hints of protected return tickets — only to now hear that they must “go through their governors first.”
If the governor doesn’t like your face or political style, the ticket could simply “be gone.”
Self-Inflicted Trap?
Critics describe this as the majority “shooting themselves in the foot” (or “shutting themselves in the leg,” in local parlance).
By helping create a stricter framework aimed at opposition fluidity, APC lawmakers assumed their own positions were secure through incumbency and party loyalty. They didn’t fully anticipate:
– Internal APC power plays where governors prioritize loyalists or fresh faces over some long-serving or recently defected federal lawmakers.
– The absence of guaranteed “return tickets,” even for “performing” legislators, as the party leadership insists on competitive processes.
The result? Growing anxiety, quiet grumbling, and in some cases, lawmakers already exploring alternatives or pushing back through lobbying.
Recent waves of defections in the House of Representatives (some moving out of APC or into it) reflect the realignments and uncertainties ahead of 2027.
In states like Taraba, for instance, the dynamics around Governor Kefas’s influence, the recent party congress disputes, and figures like Chief David Sabo Kente (DSK) highlight how local power centers can complicate things for federal actors.
Broader Lesson
Nigerian politics often rewards foresight over short-term tactical wins. The APC majority in the 10th Assembly may have thought they were setting traps for rivals by tightening defection and primary rules.
Instead, those rules — combined with the party’s internal emphasis on gubernatorial leverage and no automatic tickets — have created new vulnerabilities for many of their own members.
As primaries approach, a number of APC National Assembly members risk finding themselves politically exposed: unable to easily jump ship post-primary due to the very laws they helped enable, yet not guaranteed a safe path within their current party.
The laughter emoji I used here captures the schadenfreude many observers feel — politics, as always, remains a game where today’s “smart” move can become tomorrow’s self-made obstacle.
The situation remains fluid, with ongoing consultations, potential court cases, and further realignments likely before the full picture for 2027 clears.
–Pamela O., political columnist and renowned political commentator.
