Cameroon: Where does Biya’s reelection leave Tchiroma?

Biya has ruled Cameroon through a mix of repression, patronage and patient endurance. His latest victory drew little surprise but renewed frustration among citizens who have grown weary of elections that seem to recycle the same outcome.

The country’s two Anglophone regions, still reeling from years of separatist conflict, saw some of the lowest participation rates.

What next for the opposition leader?

For Tchiroma, the 75-year-old leader of the Front pour le Salut National du Cameroun(FSNC) who had declared himself the winner even before the official proclamation of results, Biya’s victory only sharpened his sense of injustice. He has continued to reject the outcome and vowed not to recognise Biya’s mandate.

His open defiance has jolted a demoralised opposition long resigned to the inevitability of Biya’s victories.

For decades, Tchiroma has straddled both sides of Cameroonian politics. As Biya’s communications minister from 2009 to 2018, he defended the government through years of repression before breaking away to rebrand himself as a reformist, a dual identity that has made him both credible and suspect in equal measure.

As tensions mounted last week ahead of the official declaration of results, Jeune Afrique, citing sources close to the presidency, reported that  Tchiroma had rejected an offer from the Biya administration to become prime minister in exchange for publicly recognising the president’s victory.

”It may isolate him politically, but it also hardens his image as the last opposition figure willing to openly defy Biya’s machine“

That option, analysts say, has now passed. With the prime ministerial post no longer on the table, Tchiroma is left with little leverage and fewer pathways back into the political mainstream.

“The offer was a textbook Biya manoeuvre, to absorb, neutralise and move on,” says Sam Mbeng, an activist in the southwestern Cameroonian town of Buea.

“Tchiroma’s rejection closes every formal channel to the presidency. It may isolate him politically, but it also hardens his image as the last opposition figure willing to openly defy Biya’s machine,” he tells The Africa Report.

That, Mbeng adds, makes him unpredictable and potentially disruptive. “Tchiroma’s defiance may not change the outcome, but it signals that even after 42 years of Biya, there are still voices unwilling to pretend this is democracy.”

Legal dead end

Under Cameroon’s constitution, candidates have 72 hours to appeal election results before the Constitutional Council. Yet historically, this option offers little hope.

In 2018, when opposition leader Maurice Kamto sought to challenge the results, his petition was swiftly dismissed and he was later jailed on charges linked to post-election protests.

“Cameroon’s institutions are designed to validate, not question, power,” says Mbeng. “The opposition’s role is tolerated only as a façade of democracy.”

On 22 October, the Constitutional Council threw out various appeals against the results, effectively closing off any legal avenue for Tchiroma or any opposition candidate to contest the outcome. Once the results have been proclaimed by the council, they cannot be challenged.

“Issa Tchiroma Bakary’s realistic options for contesting the presidential election results are now primarily political and symbolic, as the legal avenue is concluded and the official winner has been declared,” says Kathleen Ndongmo, a social justice advocate and strategist.

The street as last resort

That, according to observers, leaves Tchiroma with only one remaining option: the street. For some analysts, large-scale mobilisation now represents the final frontier for opposition politics in Cameroon, though it carries enormous risks in a country where dissent is closely monitored and swiftly suppressed.

“He has called for peaceful demonstrations and vowed to stand by the truth of the ballot, and those protests are ongoing as supporters continue to be mobilised,” says Ndongmo.

However, Cameroon’s opposition remains deeply fragmented, and this strategy could corner Tchiroma politically, she says. “If he maintains that the current government is illegitimate, he cannot then accept any offer of participation within it.”

“Cameroon’s greatest risk is not revolution, but slow decay”

“He has called for peaceful demonstrations and vowed to stand by the truth of the ballot, and those protests are ongoing as supporters continue to be mobilised,” says Ndongmo.

Yet Cameroon still has a very fragmented opposition, and this stance could also mean Tchiroma may have to reject any offers for a role in government if he asserts that the current government is not legitimate, she tells The Africa Report.

He recently went a step further, appealing directly to officials and members of the military to “take a stand”. His bold call underscores the growing unease within Cameroon’s ruling circles — and raises questions about how far the military’s loyalty to Biya truly extends.

“If we saw a major and sustained mobilisation campaign, potentially triggered by Tchiroma’s arrest or the presentation of serious evidence of fraud, there is a real risk that Biya’s hold on power could slip,” says Daniel van Dalen, a Great Lakes analyst at Signal Risk. “He holds a lot of sway over senior military officers, but far less among mid-tier and lower-ranking ranks.”

For that to become a genuine threat, he adds, there would need to be “substantial and pervasive” protests.

Lives have already been lost in street protests. “Many Cameroonians on the streets are saying they are simply out to defend their votes and need to know the truth. It is quite the irony that the ruling party, which claims to have won in one round, is experiencing so much anger being directed at it by so many,” says Ndongmo.

Protests limited to Douala, Garoua

But with major demonstrations currently limited to Douala and Garoua, mass protests capable of shaking the regime do not appear forthcoming. “Biya’s regime should be able to contain what we are currently seeing – albeit through internet disruptions,” van Dalen tells The Africa Report. “The coming days will determine how secure Biya’s regime is, but for now, he seems safe.”

Yaoundé remains quiet. Yet beneath the surface, fatigue and frustration run deep. For Mbeng, Biya’s victory has extended his rule but not renewed his legitimacy, leaving a nation suspended between stability and stagnation.

“Cameroon’s greatest risk is not revolution, but slow decay,” he says. “The system is resilient enough to survive dissent but too rigid to renew itself. That’s an inherently unstable equilibrium.”

Mbeng adds that Tchiroma’s defiance, while unlikely to alter the result, has revealed the growing exhaustion with a political system that has forgotten how to change. “His refusal to concede has made him a solitary figure, isolated from power but not irrelevant to the public mood.”